Post Election Reflections

by Robert Wilkinson

Time for a victory lap and some reflections

As I write this, it’s 7 am the day after, and to my surprise, Obama took VA! That officially makes Virginia, as well as North Carolina, “swing states” in future elections. The Republican party can no longer automatically count on those two states in their “safe” column. Election 2008 could have been an anomaly, but two consecutive elections indicate a trend. And it would seem that Iowa, Nevada, Colorado, and New Hampshire also are trending Democrat.

As could be expected, Florida is still out. But Obama is up with 97% of the vote in. If that holds, Obama will have won with 332 electoral votes (he got 365 in 2008). Anything over 300 is considered a clear mandate.

The Senate is pretty much as I called it. Two seats are supposedly still undecided (MT and ND, both of which have Dems up at this time), but as of now it’s a clear Dem majority, expanded a little from yesterday. It is expected the House will wind up with 198 Dems, 10 less than I thought, but still a small increase in Dem House numbers.

Rove had his public hissy fit about Fox calling Ohio for Obama - still waiting on the vote flipping, Karl? - and it seems the party of the billionaire robber barons got well thumped all over. They spent well over half a billion dollars and didn't accomplish ONE of their election intentions. They thought they would take the Senate AND the White House while increasing their majority in the House. That's ZERO for three. As I saw it put, “United citizens beat Citizens United.”

This marks the acceleration of the end of the Republican Party, due to trends clearly indicating overwhelming support for Dems from the top to the bottom of the ticket among Hispanic and Latino/Latina voters, and the number of young people voting Democrat remained as high as in 2008. The party of angry entitled white men is dying a slow death, and screaming all the way.

I’ve been on a few comment streams already. It’s amazing that on some of them Republicans are screaming that Obama is not their president, and they hope he fails. This also indicates the national mood is ugly, with members of one party unwilling to accept they are not the majority, and refusing to accept the election results actually show what the nation wants.

It seems that many Republicans insist in public forums that the majority of Democrats are lazy parasites on welfare, and many actually believe illegal aliens and slackers on the public dole made up the majority of Obama voters and refuse to accept any other possible cause of his re-election. They are openly refusing to accept reality. Again, this does not bode well for our nation, since about 20% of the population refuse to accept the results of democratic elections regardless of the facts and reality that they are an extremist minority.

Publicly the Republican power players have begun recriminations and are eating their own. This will further fracture the Republican party, since it’s become a party of extremists shouting out the moderates, and making sure only Grover Norquist purists get the nod in the primaries. This is also going to end, given that a few Republicans have openly stated they are no longer willing to be bound by his pledge. This could be the beginning of a good trend, since a sane tax policy must be put into motion for the good of our country.

I do take joy in the fact that Mitt Romney’s lies and shapeshifting obviously did not fool the majority of American voters into buying into his vulture capitalist philosophy, and Ryan’s “Ayn Randian” approach to killing Medicare, Social Security, and the safety net was utterly repudiated. Billionaire robber barons did not manage to buy the election, and Republicans do not get to destroy what’s left of the American dream.

Exit polls clearly and overwhelmingly indicated Romney “doesn’t get” and “doesn’t care” for the vast majority of Americans. This indicates that the public saw through the chameleon foisted as a candidate who was willing to say literally anything to pander for votes. Perhaps the majority of the voting public are not as gullible as Republican strategists would have us believe. They certainly spent enough money trying to sell us a two-faced empty suit and someone whose only job before government was driving a weinermobile.

Republicans tried to make this an election about Obama not being good for the economy, and openly mocked and stated they would repeal the ACA. I believe it’s safe to say the election proves the majority of Americans do not agree with these positions. While several red states voted on opting out of the mandate (which originally was a Republican party idea in the 90s) it doesn’t matter.

Exit polls indicated a vast majority of the American voting public supports what Obama has tried to change in the health insurance model. While I expect there will be more legal challenges to the health care law, hopefully any amendments and changes will benefit the public even more than what’s already in place (as we inch toward a single payer system….)

So effectively we have the same scenario as yesterday, which was re-affirmed by the voters of the United States. Barack Obama is the President. The House of Representatives is still dominated by Republicans, though the influence of the Tea Party extremists is diminished by what this election was about and what message won the day. The Senate still has a Dem majority, though some are Dems in name only and may not support legislation that would make their red state constituents unhappy. Still, all in all a good result, given the stakes.

While House Republicans can insist the President must work to accommodate them, that is not the message a significant majority of Americans sent the Republican party yesterday. Should the final Senate tally be 53 Dems plus two independents, unless the Republicans continue to stonewall legislation in lockstep, threatening more hundreds of filibusters as they did in the first term, then we should have more legislation passed, more judges appointed, and maybe even get a Supreme Court justice who will put people ahead of corporations.

While our nation still has horrendous problems that have been neglected for years, and the environment continues to degrade, it’s a blessing that yesterday turned out as it did. I suspect that old saw “necessity is the mother of invention” may dominate the political landscape for the next four years, since there are forces at work beyond the ability of political parties to ignore or postpone.

Copyright © 2012 Robert Wilkinson

Comments

[Jan Nunley+]

There were concerns that Mercury retrograde coming on November 6 could mean a repeat of the 2000 election debacle over hanging chads, alleged fraud, etc., lasting well into December. Are we out of those woods or is that still a possibility?

[Daniel]

Nice commentary Robert. Curious if there will be a further push now to get rid of the electoral college and base presidency on popular vote. In any case, I voted for Jill Stein, with the aspiration that someday there is a legitimate 3rd party to the 2-headed monster of Dem / Rep.

[Robert]

Hi facebook - Well, it could, except this time Florida doesn't determine the election. There may be some challenges filed here and there, but so far it seems that the Dems made sure to counter Repub shenanigans up front. Plus Obama is a stronger personality than Al Gore, so would not back down so quickly.

As I see it, there are absentee ballots still coming in from all over, the Senate still has two seats not called, the House has several seats not called, and NJ is behind in processing applications for email voting. I'm sure there will be widespread reports about machines flipping votes to opposing candidates. That's already documented.

What I've seen so far is the refusal of many Republicans on comment streams to accept the legitimacy of Obama's presidency, which is a retrograde problem that isn't going away. Republicans stole 2000 and 2004, and never accepted 2008. That's one way the RX is showing itself. It could very well be they are plotting right now ways to continue their retrograde obstructions the next 4 years. And of course, things won't turn out as anyone thinks right now, due to the RX effect.

Hi Daniel - You can bet that if Romney had won the popular vote Republicans would be screaming for the elimination of the electoral college. I believe it would be a good thing, but I doubt the power brokers that constitute the members of the EC will allow it to happen.

I consistently voted third party (Green) when I lived in a solid Red state (TX) and again when I lived in a solid Blue state (CA). This election I was in a state where I had to vote for the Senate candidate who needed to win since so much was at stake.

Unfortunately, we've always had pretty much two major parties since the election of 1796. Third parties are usually spoilers, like George Wallace, Ross Perot, and Ralph Nader, each of whom siphoned off enough votes to affect the election they ran in, but could never win on their own.

I believe this will accelerate the breakdown of the Republican party, and out of the fragments will come a party that returns to its roots in sane fiscal and social policies. There may very well be a fringe party that also comes out of the wreckage, but it will be marginal.

In the history of this countries, political parties do have a life span after which they fracture. The Republicans actually outlived their shelf life some time ago, and have truly become another party than they were before 1980. Given the stated Republican party platform, I believe they have become state-supported corporatists (a.k.a fascists) funded by robber barons pushing a neocon agenda while waving the Bible and a flag.

Democrats are essentially what Republicans were before 1980. They are certainly not the party of FDR, HST, LBJ. Hubert Humphrey, or George McGovern. So we're stuck with one party being mainly right wing extremists funded by corporate oligarchs and the other being inept, timid, and also beholden to corporations. I'd almost prefer a parliamentary model, since that would encourage third and fourth and fifth parties, but that's not in our Constitution.

The only way we'll get any true reform would be to go to an electoral model where we put very low limits on what could be spent in any given phase of the campaign. With the current SCOTUS, good luck on that!

I've long maintained we should go to a "sweet 16" model of elections. Let any and all pony up some amount, like $10K or 10K signatures to encourage as many candidates as possible, and then do a round of debates, after which a vote is held and the top 16 move to the second round. Another series of debates, another vote, and the top 4 move to the semifinal. All debates are broadcast, with specific questions about issues of interest locally and nationally that the candidates would be required to answer rather than blather talking points.

Use a ranked voting procedure model where the voter gets to rate the candidates with votes that are weighted by which you like most, then next, etc. This ensures that lesser known candidates still get a share of the vote that's proportional to how much the voters like them. Each round would have a limit on what could be spent for advertising. (Some countries do not allow negative ads in their campaigns, which would be a relief but would probably be held unconstitutional.) But with a spending limit, it would be a disincentive to spend that money trashing your opponents, especially if there were a number of them.

Anyway, a few more reflections!

[Robert]

Hi all - Tester was just declared the winner of the Montana Senate race. One left to go.

UPDATE 2 pm MST: Dem Heidi Heitkamp was declared the victor in the ND Senate race, making it exactly as I called it, 53 Dems, 45 Repubs, and 2 Indies. House races so far have resulted in 233-195, with the chance that Dems will pick up 5 more in "too close to call" races.

To note, this is the first Senate in history to have 20 women Senators! That's a great thing!! And it seems NH is the first state in history to have an all female congressional delegation, with two women Senators and two women House members. You've come a long way, ladies ......

On that note, here's more about the possible Mercury retrograde effect (even though some of these "real world" delays are common to our elections):

First a story about Voters endure delays, lines and misinformation to cast ballots

While Florida hasn't been called yet, President Obama has won reelection, so who is finally declared the winner of Florida only determines Obama’s final margin over Mitt Romney. Obama leads Romney by less than a percentage point in Florida, and absentee ballots are still being counted, with results expected this afternoon.

In the North Dakota Senate race and all precincts reported, Democrat Heidi Heitkamp leads Rick Berg by a slim margin. There may be a recount, so this could stretch on for a while unless Berg concedes, which is anathema to Republicans who have lost close races.

Victors have still not been declared in the Washington and Montana gubernatorial races, though Dems are winning both by narrow margins. Votes are still being counted, expected to go on for a number of days. In Montana, Dem Steve Bullock leads Rick Hill by two points with 83 percent of precincts reporting. Late vote counting and delayed same-day registration slowed the process there. UPDATE: Bullock has been called as the winner.

House races in California, Arizona, North Carolina, Michigan, and Florida are still too close to call, and some will require recounts.

[lrm]

The electoral college votes are not 'a clear mandate'. Popular vote represents clear mandate.
Look, I'm not for Romney whatsoever, but I loathe biased remarks couched in critical thinking disguise.
I know you are clear in stating your support for Obama, but your rhetoric could be far more effective, if it were separated a bit from your critical inferences/leaps.
JMHO, of course.

Imagine if you were for Obama and has was that far behind in electoral votes. Or that you were living in a state where all votes went to the opposing candidate...how would you feel about your 'vote'?

Honestly, if the Obama supporters really believe in 'everyone counts' and come together through diversity, then the electoral college will be seen for what it is, rather than touted as a 'clear mandate' for Obama's re election.

geesh. how gauche.(:

[Robert]

hi Irm - Actually, it IS a clear mandate. Clear popular vote victory, clear electoral college victory, increase in number of Dem Senate seats, increase in number of Dem House seats, all in a year when Obama was predicted to lose for all kinds of reasons and the Republicans have openly declared with greatest conviction they thought they would absolutely take the Senate and improve on their numbers in the House. Clear loss all around for Republicans on the national governing level in a year when there were more than twice the number of Dem Senate seats up for grabs than Republican. That's a mandate! If you have a different metric for determining "mandate" then please share it. I'm using the metric that ALL political analysts use.

I will repeat: I do not support most of Obama's policies he's continued from the previous administration. I don't like some things he's done on his own. I think he's not really a great president. He could be above average if the Republican House would work with him, so as it is the verdict is still out. He's going along to get along with no cooperation. This is unprecedented obstruction in the history of our country. And to note, I may not like a lot of what he does, but the Office of the President deserves some respect, a whole lot more than Republicans have given it and its current occupant.

I'm not sure what your "imagine if you were for Obama..." statement means. It makes no sense since Obama was way behind in the EV in the early hours of the election, at one point 33-3. But then I don't view things the way you do, and I've called countless elections accurately for over 20 years. That's my proof of my critical thinking skills. Been examining demographic splits, polls of every sort, and forecasting probabilities of future scenarios for many decades locally and nationally. That's why I'm booked till the end of time for personal sessions. You cannot be accurate without critical thinking skills and the ability to detach from emotional biases in forecasts.

I have lived in states where "all votes went to the opposing candidate." So what? That happens in elections. I really don't take any of it personally, since I know the game is rigged sixteen ways from Thursday. Or haven't you been reading my somewhat cynical attitude about our two faces of one party opinion pieces?

And I can only note that for months I put up with nonsense, insults, and in your face arrogance from Republicans who ALL claimed that Obama had lost his mandate to govern, so he should get out of the way, "let the adults take over," let us show you the path to prosperity through slashing the safety net, we can't afford to continue Medicare and Social Security, and all the other fear tactics Republicans use to try to convince people to vote against their best interests. Believe me, I feel less about my own vote in elections past than I feel worse for those elderly in Florida who were stripped from voter rolls illegally by Republicans because they didn't return a flyer, or a flyer was returned. Republican dirty tricks are well documented, beginning with Segretti through Lee Atwater all the way to Karl Rove. This is not just an opinion.

As I've made clear in other postings, all the EC was/is was a device contrived by elite land holders in the Enlightenment Era to ensure that regardless of how the masses voted, the "right people" would wind up in office. The EC is composed of the elites of both parties, with no other included. Based in who wins the vote, that state's EC representatives get to cast their vote for preznit.

I'm not sure what other thing you imply when you say "then the electoral college will be seen for what it is." It's not the EC that gives the mandate. It's the votes of the people, and it would seem that using every metric of national governance, Republicans lost ground significantly in every way. Despite spending a record amount of private money, they still lost seats in the House and Senate and did not win the presidency. You may want to re-think some of your views about what you believe I'm stating.

[caliban]

Is the electoral college based on the number of congressional districts? And aren't those always being redrawn by the house itself. Please correct me if I am wrong.

And all the wah wah out there, I am experiencing it as a time warp. It tells me that a large part of us population is way behind the trends. I don't know if it is possible to freeze evolution and change.

[ull]

Thank god that Obama won..I think there was a lot of feminine spiritual forces assisting

[Shayne Laughter]

Hello, Robert,

I really appreciate your cogent writing and the rich gifts from your political-analyst "past life."

Want evidence of Mercury Rx on Election Day 2012? Read http://minx.cc/?post=334783

Team Romney went for a digitized GOTV "strike list" system, and it was a massive failure.

Cheers!

[neptune listening]

So much for balance and poise. All I hear is anger, and it's not all necessarily coming from the Republicans.

[Robert]

Hi caliban - Yes, they are based in that. And they are redrawn every 10 years by the state legislatures. It's called gerrymandering, where whichever party is in power in the various statehouses seeks to draw districts so it favors their party. It's not that the population is behind the trends, but I will say that Republicans seem to have an agenda to take America back to either the 50s, 1910, or the Gilded Age. Their platform contains elements of all three eras, but certainly very little we could associate with 21st century thinking, especially on social issues, women's issues, immigration issues, voting rights, and a host of other issues.

Hi ull - I second that.

Hi Shayne - Yes, and I suspect there was a lot of behind the scenes maneuvering, especially involving hackers and counterhackers.

Hi Neptune - Yes, I've also noted a lack of perspective, grace, and poise now that House Republicans are claiming a mandate even though they lost ground in what history will deem a major loss. That's pretty out of balance, as is their plan to tweak their campaign style while standing on a platform that will ensure they'll never win much of anything again if they persist in demonizing huge groups of Americans.

For them to insist even today that Obama MUST "compromise" isn't very balanced, given their past obstruction of everything that's good for our nation. I've been all over the boards on various comment streams, and I don't agree with your assessment about where there's anger.

Mostly I've seen a lot of gloating by Dems, and angry spiteful attitudes by Republicans. While some Dems are still angry at Republican efforts to derail the global economy and kill off the Middle class, as well as their continued intention to obstruct Obama despite his being reelected on a specific platform of RAISING TAXES ON THE MOST WEALTHY, their frustration is understandable. What parts of the Republican party platform being totally rejected don't Republicans get?

Here I'll note that at Old Miss there were racial epithets being thrown Obama's way. I'd say there is very little poise out there, due to Dem celebrations - rightly deserved! - and Repub shock and anger at believing their own press releases would win the election. When you can cite some instances of blacks screaming racial epithets about Romney on college campuses, please leave a link.

BTW - if I seem partisan, I am. I don't much like the Democratic party, and I really don't like many of Obama's policies, but as of now I'm forced to take Dems over a Republican party that is state-supported corporatism favoring taking away women's rights and destroying Medicare and Social Security. I've looked at both party approaches, and Republicans will kill the safety net. That's a fact. And I really don't like fascists.....

Oh yes! A great NYT article on why Obama did what he did in the first debate, and how the campaign turned things around and won the election. It seems Romney's misrepresentations and outright lies were a part of Republican strategy all along. If you can't fact check on the spot, then things get lost in the swirl of what's said next. That's why Obama had "the transcript" of his exact words in the Rose Garden in the 2nd debate that he used to clean Romney's clock. Interesting read.

ADD: Speaking of Republican mean-spiritedness, Coal company fires more than 150 workers in response to Obama re-election. Here's a longer piece with the CEO's polemical "prayer."

ADD: Koch brothers to workers: Vote for Romney or 'suffer the consequences'

ADD: It seems that Republicans in Nevada and NM got caught for actual voter fraud

ADD: LOTS of vote machine malfunctions all across the nation.

ADD: Rightwing voter monitoring group True the Vote Commits fraud in Ohio

[Robert]

Final: The Senate is exactly as I called it, and after all the recounts, it seems the House will have 234 Republicans, 201 Democrats, pretty close to my original call. That makes my error 1.6%, which isn't bad. Mark my words, this election was the beginning of the end of the Republican party as we've known it. Thank heaven. Time for responsible government that serves the people of the US rather than narrow corporate interests.

[Nancy Robinson]

I,and many like friends, decided to NOT vote to continue this corrupt government. Was really enjoyable watching the mass Sheeplelization come to fruition nonetheless, within the mind controlled media.

Nancy